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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.76 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -3.43 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.04 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.53 EP
PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP