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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model