Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche to PIT 48 for 21 yards (87-R.Williams). PIT-17-T.Thompson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.73 EP
71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model