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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 29 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.46 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model