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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model