4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP