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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

NE
53.9%
NYJ
46.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.216 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.074 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 20
–
NYJ 18
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NE

Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Michael Onwenu G Questionable Ankle
Sidy Sow T Questionable Concussion
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee

NYJ

Tony Adams S Out Hamstring
Wes Schweitzer G Out Concussion
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Hip
Greg Zuerlein K Questionable right Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 15
–
NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:46 FG NE (10:46) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 11:49 TD NE (11:49) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 86-P.Brown for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 01:25 FG NYJ (1:25) 9-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NE 10 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 10:31 FG NE (10:31) 37-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 13 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 05:29 TD NYJ (5:29) 48-N.Bawden up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NYJ 9
  • Q4 02:27 SAF NE (2:27) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (9-M.Judon). NE 15 – NYJ 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to NE 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 77%

    (10:46) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (7:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 5-J.Peppers ran ob at NE 36 for 18 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 36%

    (5:13) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to NYJ 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-86-P.Brown.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:13) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NE 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 5-J.Peppers to NE 43 for 7 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 75%

    (14:56) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to NE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 5-J.Peppers.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:38) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 33 for no gain (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 28%

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle to NE 42 for 6 yards (5-J.Peppers).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 66%

    (1:25) 9-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (10:31) 37-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to NYJ 40, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 49 for 9 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (3:06) 5-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 31 for 12 yards (45-C.Board).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at NE 23 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 36%

    (10:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 24%

    (2:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to NYJ 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 52%

    (:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.