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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Jets
4th & 7 at the 48
New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 13
What Actually Happened
(3:06) 5-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.62 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
- 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK
-1.33 EP
- 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
