Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 55

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 15

(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.92 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -1.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model