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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 48
New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(4:11) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle to NE 42 for 6 yards (5-J.Peppers).
The Three Options
GO
+1.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.02 EP
- 33% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
KICK
-1.22 EP
- 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
