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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 50

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to NYJ 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model