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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to NE 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model