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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 88

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NE 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 5-J.Peppers to NE 43 for 7 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model