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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 34

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 9-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP