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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 88

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to NYJ 40, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 49 for 9 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 88, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model