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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 62

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to NE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 5-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP