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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 77

New England Patriots 15 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.89 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model