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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 5-J.Peppers ran ob at NE 36 for 18 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model