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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LA
33.5%
TB
66.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB on 3 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LA

Jake Hummel LB Out Hip
Brian Allen C Questionable Knee
Van Jefferson WR Questionable Knee

TB

Russell Gage WR Out Hamstring
Luke Goedeke G Out Foot
Cameron Brate TE Out Neck
Antoine Winfield S Out Concussion
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Foot
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Hip
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 13
–
TB 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:19 FG TB (7:19) 3-R.Succop 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. LA 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 13:08 TD LA (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:28 FG TB (:28) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. LA 7 – TB 6
  • Q3 09:17 FG LA (9:17) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 10 – TB 6
  • Q3 00:13 FG LA (:13) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 13 – TB 6
  • Q4 08:13 FG TB (8:13) 3-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. LA 13 – TB 9
  • Q4 00:13 TD TB (:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – TB 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:01) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 27, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 44 for 17 yards (11-R.Dixon).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:19) 3-R.Succop 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:12) 11-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to TB 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (32-T.Howard).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:10) 5-J.Camarda punts 68 yards to LA 9, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 9.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to LA 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-98-A.Nelson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:23) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to TB 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (43-J.Gervase).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:28) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to LA 11, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:51) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to TB 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 72%

    (3:03) 3-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (45-B.Wagner), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, RECOVERED by LA-45-B.Wagner at LA 40.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to TB 1, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 10 for 9 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (:28) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:17) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to LA 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell pushed ob at TB 35 for 42 yards (5-J.Camarda). PENALTY on LA-21-R.Yeast, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (9:17) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 74 yards to LA 11, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 47 for 15 yards (53-E.Jones).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 45%

    (4:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 47 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (:13) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:47) 11-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to TB 29, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 38 for 9 yards (43-J.Gervase).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

    (8:13) 3-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:54) 11-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to TB 30, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 41 for 11 yards (88-B.Hopkins).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:54) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 40, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 40 for no gain (21-R.Yeast).