Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(10:23) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to TB 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (43-J.Gervase).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.21 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model