Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to LA 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell pushed ob at TB 35 for 42 yards (5-J.Camarda). PENALTY on LA-21-R.Yeast, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model