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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 3-R.Succop 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +4.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.57 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP