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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 11-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to TB 29, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 38 for 9 yards (43-J.Gervase).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model