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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(:54) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 40, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 40 for no gain (21-R.Yeast).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.21 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 45, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model