4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 3-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (45-B.Wagner), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, RECOVERED by LA-45-B.Wagner at LA 40.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model