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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model