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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 27, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 44 for 17 yards (11-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.65 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model