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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to LA 11, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP