Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

(5:54) 11-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to TB 30, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 41 for 11 yards (88-B.Hopkins).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model