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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 5-J.Camarda punts 68 yards to LA 9, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.19 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model