Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.151 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.040 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Tua Tagovailoa in place of Teddy Bridgewater)
- MIA offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- PIT defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
PIT
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:51 TD MIA (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – MIA 6
- Q1 05:34 FG MIA (5:34) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. PIT 0 – MIA 10
- Q1 02:32 FG MIA (2:32) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. PIT 0 – MIA 13
- Q2 11:49 FG PIT (11:49) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – MIA 13
- Q2 01:55 TD PIT (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – MIA 13
- Q2 00:07 FG MIA (:07) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. PIT 10 – MIA 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 23 yards to MIA 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 45.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(5:34) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%
(2:32) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 30%
(14:39) (No Huddle) 30-J.Warren right guard to MIA 46 for 4 yards (52-E.Roberts).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 83%
(11:49) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:30) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to PIT 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 14 for 2 yards (20-J.Bethel; 22-E.Campbell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%
(:07) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:58) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%
(8:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds left guard to PIT 14 for no gain (51-M.Jack).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 70%
(6:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:00) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to PIT 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 39 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 15 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 72%
(:44) 4-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 70%
(14:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(12:03) 4-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski pushed ob at PIT 23 for 10 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(10:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 15 for 1 yard (44-D.Watt).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 54%
(8:03) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 42 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%
(2:37) 4-T.Morstead punts 29 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).
See the full breakdown →
