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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:44) 4-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP