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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP