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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 4-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski pushed ob at PIT 23 for 10 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.78 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model