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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model