4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model