4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:07) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model