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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.04 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -0.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model