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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 4-T.Morstead punts 29 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP