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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 15 for 1 yard (44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model