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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP