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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 23 yards to MIA 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model