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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DAL
50.3%
LA
49.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
LA 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DAL

Dak Prescott QB Out right Thumb
Jason Peters T Doubtful Chest
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Illness
Quinton Bohanna DT Questionable Neck
Jake Ferguson TE Questionable Knee
CeeDee Lamb WR Questionable Groin
Jourdan Lewis CB Questionable Groin

LA

Brian Allen C Out Knee
Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring
Jordan Fuller S Out Hamstring
Coleman Shelton G Out Ankle
Taylor Rapp S Questionable Ribs
David Long CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 22
–
LA 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:36 TD DAL (13:36) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 24 for -10 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong) [92-D.Armstrong], touched at LA 23, RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at LA 19. 90-D.Lawrence for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 08:47 FG DAL (8:47) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 9 – LA 0
  • Q1 05:25 FG LA (5:25) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. DAL 9 – LA 3
  • Q2 09:42 TD LA (9:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – LA 9
  • Q2 08:10 TD DAL (8:10) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – LA 10
  • Q3 08:15 FG DAL (8:15) 19-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 19 – LA 10
  • Q4 05:36 FG DAL (5:36) 19-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 22 – LA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 44%

    (9:42) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Armstrong, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at LA 34. 92-D.Armstrong to LA 20 for 14 yards (42-M.Orzech).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (8:47) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (5:25) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:09) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to LA 10, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-B.Powell to LA 10 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-19-B.Powell, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:01) 11-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to DAL 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:07) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to LA 17, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:34) 11-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 23, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:30) 5-B.Anger punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:29) (Punt formation) 11-R.Dixon pass short middle to 43-J.Gervase to LA 37 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 50%

    (:29) 11-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to DAL 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (8:15) 19-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:39) 5-B.Anger punts 35 yards to DAL 43, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-B.Powell to DAL 29 for 14 yards (1-K.Joseph).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (13:38) 8-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:40) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LA 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:20) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DAL 36, Center-42-M.Orzech. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 48 for 12 yards (42-M.Orzech).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (5:36) 19-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:33) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to LA 41, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-B.Powell to LA 46 for 5 yards (1-K.Joseph).