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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Armstrong, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at LA 34. 92-D.Armstrong to LA 20 for 14 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model