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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DAL 36, Center-42-M.Orzech. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 48 for 12 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.79 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP