Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 92

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(:39) 5-B.Anger punts 35 yards to DAL 43, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-B.Powell to DAL 29 for 14 yards (1-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.51 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 92, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model