Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to LA 10, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-B.Powell to LA 10 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-19-B.Powell, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.51 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model