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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(:29) 11-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to DAL 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP