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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 11-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to DAL 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model