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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 8-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model